Sound Transit Board approves Spring 2024 opening for East Link starter line

When the first segment of Link opened the uptake in ridership was slower than people expected.

Yes, and one of the big reasons given was that Metro didn’t try and funnel people to Link. In fact, ST officials complained about it. They said their predictions were based on it, and Metro didn’t deliver. Even now, it is clear that the 106 poaches a significant number of riders from Link. Very few people use it as a shuttle (they don’t get off at Rainier Beach Station, but keep going). In contrast, more riders use the 106 as an alternative to Link for getting downtown or just traveling in Rainier Valley.

In contrast, the UW restructure was the opposite. ST no longer bases their predictions on the bus network (which explains why 130th Station had such low predicted ridership). Given past restructures, ST had no idea what to expect from Metro. A lot of people assumed that Metro would just keep running the express buses to downtown (71, 72, 73). These buses carried tens of thousands of riders, and provided a vital and very popular connection from the U-District to downtown. But despite the awkward transfer, Metro focused on increasing frequency, and truncated all of them. The result was what you would expect — ridership on the buses went down, but ridership on the train went up. People switched modes.

Net ridership did go up, but not by that much. Keep in mind, Link is still a tiny portion of overall transit ridership. Before the pandemic, Link would get somewhere around 80,000 riders, while Metro got over half a million. Link has a bigger portion of overall ridership now, but is still nowhere near what Metro had before the pandemic. Plus a lot of Link ridership has come from people being forced to switch.

Consider the Roosevelt Station. Before the pandemic, the 522 and 312 used to ferry 3,000 people a day downtown. The 76 and 77 carried about a thousand there as well. Those buses are all gone, and the buses funnel people to Roosevelt Station instead. Based on those numbers alone, Roosevelt would have about 4,000 boardings a day. The pandemic has definitely suppressed ridership, since the station only gets a bit over 4,000 riders now. Still, it is obvious that Roosevelt Station gets a lot of riders from people who used to just take the bus downtown.

Of course Roosevelt gets a lot of walk-up riders. It is one of the most urban places served by Link. It epitomizes what a real subway should offer: the ability to take short (often spontaneous) trips to other urban neighborhoods. These types of trips tend to occur *outside* of peak. This is one of the key elements that has occurred as Link has expanded. Ridership during peak is down; ridership midday is up. Ridership downtown is down; ridership to Capitol Hill is up. Obviously the pandemic had a lot to do with this, but the Link expansion does as well. Northgate Link was not downtown-commuter oriented; quite the opposite. As I’ve pointed out before, a peak oriented trip from the Northgate or Lake City area to downtown didn’t get much better — I would argue it got worse. But trips in the middle of the day to a lot more places (like Capitol Hill) got a lot better. This was the nature of Link expansion — peak-oriented commutes to downtown got a little bit worse, but trips at other times and to other places got a lot better. Of course there are still people who use Link to commute downtown — many of them can no longer take the bus. But that isn’t where the main value is added or where most of Link’s ridership is coming from.

Then there are the park and ride users. Northgate gets a lot of riders from people using the park and ride because it is the northern terminus. If you don’t want to bother with taking a shuttle bus, then you drive to Northgate, and take the train.

What does this mean for Snohomish County and the north end of King County? I see the following:

People will switch park and rides. If you are driving in from Shoreline or Lynnwood to Northgate, you find a different parking space. Thus I expect the garages at Northgate (which are huge) to have fewer cars, as folks spread out a bit more.

If CT and ST no longer send buses downtown, those riders will switch to Link. Some will switch even if they do.

Some riders from the north will switch from driving to taking transit. People will take trips they wouldn’t normally take (using transit) in the same way that people in Roosevelt visit Capitol Hill more often because it is a lot more convenient.

But ridership won’t be spread evenly among the uses. Not even close. The biggest chunk of ridership will come from people switching park and ride lots, or being forced to take the train instead of the bus. This is why crowding (especially during peak) will be largely dependent on how many express buses are run (if any).

Even if CT (or ST) runs express buses, some may prefer to drive to a station and take Link. This should be a relatively small number. The buses are quite popular, and can cover a lot bigger area. It is like the 41. Sure, you could always drive to the main park and ride lot at Northgate, and catch the bus there, but most people didn’t. They walked to a bus stop, or they drove to a closer parking space.

There will be riders who take advantage of the main value added — better urban transit. But I don’t see the kind of increase that Northgate Link had. Most of the stations are not very urban (they all are surrounded by large parking lots). It is also farther to the urban destinations. Very few people take transit trips to places like Mountlake Terrace. They could go to Northgate, but if you have a car (and are say, headed to the hockey rink) it is very easy to drive. The UW and Capitol Hill are significant transit destinations (with difficult parking) but those trips take longer. To be fair, it still isn’t a really long trip (especially from Shoreline) but I don’t expect ridership to Capitol Hill to soar after Lynnwood Link, the way it did with Northgate Link. There will definitely be an uptick — just not a huge one.

Some people will get out of their car during rush hour, and take the train. Talk to your average (ignorant) man on the street, and they will tell you that is why they built the damn thing. But again, only a handful. The vast majority of folks who are OK with taking transit during peak take it already. They either take the bus, or drive to the Northgate Park and Ride. Again, the big improvement is not in peak-only commuting. It is in midday trips to places like UW and Capitol Hill. That is the huge improvement for folks everywhere along the line, including the northern suburbs.